Energy Demand Forecasting ⚡🏡

Energy Demand Forecasting ⚡🏡

Energy Demand Forecasting ⚡🏡

Industry

Energy

Client

Energy tech startup

Demand Forecasting with Machine Learning: A Case Study

About project

Accurate Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Energy Sector

In the rapidly evolving energy sector, the ability to accurately forecast electricity demand has never been more critical. With the increasing prevalence of smart meters and visibility into low-voltage networks, we now have the potential to predict future electricity demand from the most granular level—individual assets—to the highest level of aggregation, such as national demand.


This capability is essential for optimizing energy distribution, ensuring grid stability, and facilitating effective demand response strategies. Demand response, a method to adjust electricity consumption in response to supply changes, requires precise forecasting from real-time to day-ahead to maximize its benefits.

Problem

Accurately forecasting electricity demand has become crucial for optimizing energy distribution, maintaining grid stability, and enhancing demand response strategies.


Despite its importance, demand forecasting presents several challenges, primarily due to the complex interplay of various factors that influence electricity demand.

  • Weather Sensitivity: Predictions can be significantly affected by unpredictable weather changes, making accurate forecasting difficult.

  • Variable Consumer Behavior: Unpredictable consumer behaviors, influenced by holidays and special events, complicate demand projections.

  • Renewable Energy Integration: The variability of renewable energy sources like wind and solar adds unpredictability to the energy supply, complicating demand forecasting.

Solution

Using a novel proprietery energy device aggregating demand from multiple households, I developed a machine learning model using various data inputs such as historical weather and demand, weather forecasts and more. The model was developed using a state-of-the-art forecasting framework.


The model accurately predicts the demand over the forecast horizon. To bring into production, I used various open source tools to build a forecasting deployment pipeline with training jobs, monitoring and alerts.


The pipeline, built using AWS, Kubernetes, MLflow, and Docker, seamlessly connects model reccuring training, deployment and inference, evaluation, and monitoring, facilitating actionable predictions. It allows training time series forecasting models, running daily/hourly inference, logging results on AWS and Grafana, and triggering alerts through email and Slack. 

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All rights reserved. © 2024 by Dean Shabi

All rights reserved. © 2024 by Dean Shabi

All rights reserved. © 2024 by Dean Shabi